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Hello, this text will be anonymous – it was written by me, a journalist and historian from Moscow. I have decided to keep my name secret because I live in Russia and don’t want to risk my safety.
For many years, I have been studying the history of Poland and its modern political life. The war in Ukraine – or, if we take a broader view, the confrontation between Russia and the West – poses numerous complex questions for Warsaw. Perhaps the main question is how to protect oneself? After all, there is a large aggressive neighbor nearby, whose behavior is becoming increasingly unpredictable. It seems that it is time to arm ourselves more actively.
And Poland is arming itself and also increasing its army. Western journalists even talk about the birth of a new military power in Europe right before our eyes, with such a potential for power that it can surpass any country in Europe.
How exactly does Poland plan to achieve its goals? And if it succeeds, how will this affect the balance of power in Europe? And most importantly – will it succeed or not? All of this is in my letter today.
NAVIGATION
This text has over 19 thousand characters, it will take about 15 minutes to read it.
The letter consists of a short introduction and three parts. The introduction sets the context and explains how Poland came to the decision to modernize its army. The first part is about an unexpected partner for Poland in the field of armaments. The second part is about cooperation with the United States and lack of cooperation with the European Union, which has long criticized Poland and even left it without “anti-crisis” funds. Finally, the third part attempts to answer the question of what all this means and whether a new military superpower is emerging before our eyes in Europe, which will overshadow its neighbors.
Introduction. How Poland decided to modernize its army
What goals does Poland want to achieve?
Poland began planning to make its army one of the most powerful in Europe one and a half years before Russia invaded Ukraine. Jaroslaw Kaczynski played an important role in this. He is a co-founder and longtime chairman of the ruling conservative party, “Law and Justice”. In Poland, he is often referred to as “Prezes”, which means chairman. In Polish domestic politics, Kaczynski is considered one of the most influential figures. He largely controls key decisions by authorities and personnel changes within the system.
Kaczynski’s political career began in the 1970s, but for the most part he did not hold official government positions – only for a short period from July 2006 to November 2007 when he led the government. In 2010, Kaczynski attempted to win early presidential elections, when the then president of the country – his twin brother Lech Kaczynski – died in a plane crash near Smolensk. However, Bronislaw Komorowski won and Jaroslaw Kaczynski retreated into the shadows. It was only ten years later, in 2020, that the Committee on National Security and Defense Matters was created in Poland at the direction of the Prime Minister, which Kaczynski headed. In fact, the agency was established under him, and as its chairman, the politician automatically became a deputy prime minister. It was then that Kaczynski began preparing a large-scale reform of the Polish armed forces – the Polish Armed Forces.
Kaczynski started with legislation. At that time, the activity of the Polish armed forces was regulated by documents created decades ago – during the existence of the Warsaw Pact Organization. Of course, changes were made as necessary, but the fundamentals remained unchanged. A new law was needed, and announcing its development, Jaroslaw Kaczynski stated that Poland “must be able to defend itself for a long time and act independently in case of necessity”, that is, to be minimally dependent on NATO allies. Kaczynski noted that Poland, which is literally on the border of Europe, next to Russia and Belarus, should create one of the most powerful European armies.
And so the draft law “On the Protection of the Homeland” emerged. According to it, firstly, the number of Polish armed forces by 2035 will increase by more than double – from the current 145 to 300 thousand people (this is not only about the professional army, but also about the forces of territorial defense). Secondly, the military budget will increase: now the financing of the Polish army is 2% of the country’s GDP – this is the minimum requirement for all NATO members, but from 2023 the figure will rise to 3%. If we rely on the size of Poland’s GDP as of 2021, the country is now ready to spend about 17 billion euros on its armed forces. However, the amount may be even higher, and significantly so. The fact is that – and this is thirdly – the document provides for off-budget financing of the army with the help of the Armed Forces Support Fund, specially created at the state bank BGK. Money to this fund will come from various sources – for example, from NATO countries that pay Poland for the use of its military facilities. In addition, BGK bank will be able to take out loans and sell bonds for the benefit of the fund, including abroad.
The law “On the Protection of the Fatherland” was submitted to the Polish Sejm on February 22, 2022 – the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Polish political space is quite heated, and local opposition forces – primarily the liberal “Civic Platform” and “Poland 2050”, as well as a number of left-wing parties – are in a harsh confrontation with “Law and Justice”. However, the new war in Europe made Polish politicians forget about ideological differences – the draft law “On the Protection of the Fatherland” was adopted swiftly. Moreover, the Senate, where the opposition has a majority, voted for it unanimously.
On March 17th, 2022, Poland made an official state decision to create an army whose power will be capable of defending the country even against an extremely strong enemy.
Part One. How Poland searched for a key military partner
And she found it in South Korea.
If we analyze the key documents regulating Warsaw’s military strategy in the last decade, it becomes obvious that the law “On the Protection of the Homeland” did not appear suddenly. It was preceded by Poland’s years-long analysis of the threats that confrontation between Russia and the West, as well as the aggravation of Russian-Ukrainian relations, could pose for it. As early as 2014, after the annexation of Crimea, Poland approved a new Security Strategy, which stated that Moscow’s aggressive actions posed a threat to Europe. And in the current Strategy, adopted in 2020, it is directly stated that Moscow poses a direct threat to Warsaw.
The process was not only on paper – Poland has been actively acquiring weapons for the past few years. For example, in 2018, they signed a contract with the US for the supply of two Patriot air defense missile systems (and six more in the future). The contract was worth $4.75 billion – the largest defense investment in the country since the collapse of the socialist system and the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact. Another notable purchase was a contract signed in early 2020 for $4.6 billion, according to which Poland is buying 32 fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets from the US.
With these contracts, Poland not only armed itself, but also strengthened its relationship with the United States as a strong and influential partner. Former US President Donald Trump insisted that the European part of the bloc increase their military spending; he was interested in defense contracts and increasing deliveries of American liquefied natural gas to the European Union. However, European countries were mostly unenthusiastic about all of this: they did not like Trump’s isolationist policies and his demonstrative disregard for many important issues (including the climate crisis).
Conservative Poland is one of the few European countries that was willing to meet with the US President. In 2017, Warsaw even offered to host a permanent American military base on its territory called “Fort Trump.” However, the Americans did not decide to do so–it would have violated the Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation, and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation of 1997, which stipulates that no permanent military installations of the alliance can be located in new member countries (Poland joined in 1999). As a result, American troops have been present in Poland on a rotational basis.
Under the next American president, Joe Biden, relations between the United States and Poland have weakened. Warsaw has simply fallen out of Washington’s attention, which has focused on repairing relations with key allies in Europe that were damaged under Trump – Germany and France. In addition, Washington has tried not to lose contact with Moscow and negotiate with it on strategic issues.
With the start of a full-scale war, Poland had to forget about close partnership with the United States: like the European Union, Washington is too busy with military aid to Ukraine and equipping its own army. In addition, the war significantly complicated the search for suppliers in principle – but Warsaw still managed to find one. In July 2022, the Polish Ministry of Defense signed a framework agreement with several private manufacturers from South Korea, agreeing with them on large-scale supplies of modern heavy weapons. Currently, this country remains one of the few on the planet that is capable of providing such supplies in principle, and can do so quickly: Seoul is staying away from the war in Ukraine.
The framework agreement pertains to tanks primarily – Poland intends to order a thousand new “Black Panthers”. By 2026, South Korea will only supply Poland with 180 of them – it concerns combat vehicles produced at South Korean Hyundai Rotem factories. The remaining 820 tanks will be assembled in Polish plants and specially modified in consideration of Poland’s topographical features. After all, “Black Panthers” were developed for military operations against the North Korean troops in the mountainous terrain of the Korean Peninsula. Secondly, the agreement implies that more than 600 South Korean self-propelled howitzers K9 will arrive in Poland. With them, it is pretty much the same as with tanks: until 2026, Poland will receive 212, while the remaining ones will be produced in Poland itself. Thirdly, Poland will receive 48 supersonic fighter jets FA-50 – these are lightweight training and combat aircraft that will start being transferred to the country from 2023 onwards. Finally, fourthly, Warsaw hopes to buy 300 K239 rocket artillery systems from South Korea, and some of them will also be manufactured in Poland.
The Polish authorities openly state that their choice of weaponry is motivated by the nature of the current Russian-Ukrainian war. “We learn from the events in Ukraine. We draw lessons from how the aggressor – Russia – fights. Today, armoured forces and artillery play a significant role on the battlefield, which is why we have decided to strengthen precisely these weapons,” explained Polish Minister of Defence Mariusz Blaszczak. The first shipment of South Korean weaponry – 10 tanks and 24 howitzers – arrived in Poland in October. They were stationed near the border between Poland and the Kaliningrad region, and Polish military personnel are learning to operate the new tanks and howitzers at training grounds in South Korea.
The countries have agreed not only on the supply of weapons, but also on the transfer of military technology. In fact, Poland is becoming a testing ground for the production of modern South Korean weapons, emphasizes Colonel Andrey Derlyatka – a former Polish ambassador to Seoul, who has worked for many years in Polish intelligence. In turn, South Korean military expert retired General In Boon Chung points out that South Korea and Poland will “ensure each other’s security.” On the one hand, if Warsaw enters into an armed conflict, Seoul will quickly deliver the necessary spare parts for its weapons. On the other hand, by creating new production facilities in Poland, South Korea actually gains control of a new defense industry center, which is invulnerable to North Korea in a potential conflict with it. In addition, South Korean weapons manufactured at Polish plants can be sold to the countries to which Seoul is wary of exporting directly – not only to Ukraine, but also to Taiwan.
It is important that the strategic positions of Poland and South Korea are in many ways similar. Each of them borders on a strong and unpredictable aggressive neighbor that has become an outcast in the world and threatens the world with nuclear war. At the same time, Russia, like North Korea, possesses a huge artillery park (both countries are world leaders in artillery power). Therefore, Polish-South Korean military cooperation looks both logical and reasonable. However, Warsaw and Seoul are betting on each other not only in the field of armaments. Korean shipyards Hyundai Heavy Industries are already fulfilling an order for the supply of eight super-gas carriers – these are such huge ships for transporting liquefied natural gas – which should become the basis of the gas fleet of the Polish company Orlen and will transport liquefied natural gas from the United States. And in November of this year, Poland signed a protocol of intent with the Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power corporation – if everything goes well, the Koreans will help Poland build a new nuclear power plant.
Part Two. Why Poland is taking revenge on Europe
And why was she left without “anti-crisis” funds?
But Poland’s plans are too ambitious to forget traditional suppliers, so the country continues to cooperate with the United States. In addition to the supply of Patriot missile systems and F-35 fighters, contracts for which were signed under Trump, Warsaw is also counting on other American weapons. For example, it will purchase a large batch of tanks – 116 used Abrams M1A1, stored in the warehouses of the US Marine Corps, will be delivered to the country in 2023. Poland has also ordered 250 new Abrams M2A1 – they will only be delivered by 2026, but together with the necessary support vehicles, which will allow for the immediate deployment of full-fledged combat units if necessary.
In addition, Warsaw has asked Washington to provide it with nearly a hundred Apache helicopters – the main combat helicopter of the US Army since the mid-1980s. Poland expects to receive 96 helicopters of the latest modification, AN-64E, and if the US complies with the request, Poland will become the owner of the largest fleet of these helicopters after the US itself. However, with a large gap from the Americans: the US currently has more than 800 of these machines of different modifications in service.
Finally, Poland is seeking to replenish its arsenal of barrage rocket systems. The Polish Ministry of Defense is negotiating with Washington on the delivery of 200 Himars missile launchers to the country – the very same systems that have played a significant role in the Russian-Ukrainian war since the summer. It is assumed that Himars will begin arriving in the country from 2026.
As for manufacturers from European countries – in particular, Germany and France, traditionally strong in their armies – Poland has decided to buy almost nothing from them. Commenting on this, Jaroslaw Kaczynski speaks directly: the fact is that Poland is too often criticized in the European Union. EU representatives do indeed accuse “Law and Justice” of authoritarianism and violation of the principles of the rule of law since 2015, when Kaczynski’s conservative party actually came to power. One of the reasons why this is happening (but far from the only one) is Poland’s judicial reform, which the EU considers extremely controversial.
As a result of the 2018 reform, the courts in Poland came under the authority of the Ministry of Justice, which effectively deprived them of their independence. The EU considered this a violation of the principles of the rule of law enshrined in the Treaty on European Union. In such cases, the European Union is authorized to impose sanctions on the violating country, including financial ones. As of 2021, adherence to the rule of law is one of the criteria for receiving money from the common European budget, including the Recovery and Sustainability Fund, which helps European economies recover from the pandemic crisis. Until the end of 2026, Poland could have counted on almost 35 billion euros from this fund, but the condition for receiving them was the restoration of an independent judicial system in the country. This has not happened yet, so Poland has been left without the funds.
Relations for Warsaw are difficult not only with the EU as a whole, but also with some individual member countries. The current leadership of the ruling Polish party “Law and Justice” is wary of the German authorities, with Kaczyński regularly accusing the country’s leading opposition party – “Civic Platform” – of lobbying for German interests. Poland also does not love France, because it has criticized Warsaw for violating the principles of European solidarity more than once.
As we can see, Poland’s desire to become as independent as possible from its European neighbors is understandable – their relations are quite complicated. And now, as Warsaw is spending a lot of money on rearmament outside of Europe, in a sense it is taking revenge on the EU for all its grievances.
Part three. So which army is stronger after all?
Will Poland be able to become the most powerful?
The ambitious plans for the modernization of the Polish army have already caught the attention of leading world media outlets. At the end of November, Politico wrote that a new military superpower is emerging in Europe that will surpass France and Germany – the key military forces on the continent.
On one hand, this is easy to believe: Poland already has more tanks than Germany and France combined. Compare: the French armed forces have 222 machines, and the German army, the Bundeswehr, has a tank fleet of 266 pieces; Poland, taking into account new machines entering the troops, has about 500 tanks in service, including 228 German Leopard 2s, and another 230 of their own production based on the Soviet T-72 machine.
In addition, soon Poland will acquire an impressive park of self-propelled artillery (this is in addition to the already existing “Crab” self-propelled vehicles, several dozen of which Poland has sent to Ukraine) and hundreds of rocket launchers. And when the number of the Polish army reaches the declared 300 thousand people, it will become larger than the French army (270 thousand people) and leave the Bundeswehr far behind (180 thousand).
But hardly is it worth reducing the military power of the country to just guns and tanks. Many people and much equipment are very useful for war and security, but there are other significant factors as well. For example, Poland’s industrial capabilities are much more modest than Germany’s. Financially, this also applies: in the summer, Berlin was able to allocate 100 billion euros for the purchase of new weapons – Warsaw is not yet capable of such a feat.
Competing with the military power of France is also difficult. This is the only nuclear state in the European Union that owns an aircraft carrier and a fleet of nuclear submarines – and is capable of independently conducting military operations not only in Europe but also on other continents. By the way, in November, commenting on the war in Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that Franco-German ties in defense matters need to be strengthened, and the development of the EU’s military power, in his opinion, is a higher priority than the development of NATO forces. This did not cause enthusiasm in Poland, whose current leadership is extremely skeptical about the EU.
Another weak point in Poland’s military plan is time. It will take more than 10 years for the country to increase the size of its army to 300,000 people. Moreover, many types of weapons, especially American ones, will only arrive in full by the end of this decade. In other words, if Warsaw manages to create one of the strongest European armies, it will take years.
And also – a lot of money, and it’s unknown if Poland has them. Nobody can estimate the total cost not only of purchasing, but also of operating and storing all military equipment. The expenses for creating new bases for the growing army and building military facilities have not been calculated. All of this is truly expensive and the Support Fund for the Armed Forces, specifically created for financing the army from off-budget sources, has not been able to attract the necessary funds yet.
Last autumn, specialists from the French bank Credit Agricole carefully analyzed Poland’s military plans and calculated that the country’s total expenses for the purchase and operation of new weapons by 2035 will reach 1.7 trillion zlotys, which is an astronomical 360 billion euros (for comparison, the country’s entire budget revenue in 2022 was 491.9 billion zlotys or about 105.2 billion euros). Financial experts strongly doubt that Warsaw can afford this. Credit Agricole’s chief economist Jakub Borowski warned: “It is likely that after the next elections, the new government will have to slow down both the contracts that have already come into force and those that are only planned.”
Talking about Poland becoming a new military superpower right before our eyes is premature. However, making predictions about whether their plans in this regard will come true depends on money and time.
One thing is obvious: Poland is seriously striving to create a large and modern ground army capable of potentially countering Russia. And if it does eventually achieve this goal, a powerful state will emerge within Europe that is not particularly dependent on the EU or NATO in matters of defense – and one which is far from in agreement with its “Western partners” on all issues.
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